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Woodside defends growth strategy

WOODSIDE Petroleum CEO Peter Coleman has launched a strident defence of his embattled oiler's muc...

Woodside defends growth strategy

The growth is primarily around the delayed Wheatstone project operated by Chevron, the recently shelved Browse floating LNG development which will need a new plan of action, targeted early commercialisation of its two Myanmar discoveries; lowering the cost base at Kitimat in Canada; and plateau extensions on the North West Shelf.

Exploration-wise, Woodside is chasing existing plays and basins and building out from there, with fairways now forming in "very good postcodes", which has played out in its early-mover position in Myanmar.

It's bringing its 2P reserves into the development phase out to 2020, but is "just about replacing" its reserves - something Coleman admitted the company also needs to do better.

The good news is, Coleman believes there will be a growth inflection point that kicks off in the early 2020s which will coincide with where the LNG market is going.

There are new markets opening in unlikely places such as the Middle East, Africa and South America, while growth in Asia has slowed.

Egypt now has two receiving terminals, as but one example, while Energy News reported yesterday that South Africa is planning one.

Coleman said the traditional LNG players' market position would be challenged significantly by these emerging arewas.

These new markets, he said, have been enabled by changes in technology and business models and encouraged by the current liquidity and the new alternatives for supply, not only geographically but in terms of pricing points and the transportation it allows.

However, he said Woodside would not be "stuck in the mud" as investors who have previously been simply happy to get returns will become more impatient for activity, and that could force some players to make "some very difficult choices".

All the while, Coleman said, the company was on the hunt to acquire discovered undeveloped resources to help "rebalance" its portfolio while high-grading its exploration activity.

He repeatedly reaffirmed that growth was important to the company, after both analysts and someone believed to be a highly-placed Woodside source expressed serious concerns about the company's future.

Nagging concerns

RBC Capital Markets said ahead of this morning's investor briefing that Woodside's lack of viable organic growth was still a "key issue" for investors as it pursues an acquisitive strategy to replace future barrels.

The bank believes Woodside will likely underperform its peers in a recovering oil price environment, which Coleman believes will take 18 months, but the said the worst of the oil price was over as the commodity has found a "range-bound" floor.

"We are pursuing value accretive growth and it is important to us, and we're working early phased development of our captured resources," Coleman said this morning.

"We've dropped the total cost of our exploration program but we're achieving more with less, our real focus is on quality acreage and proving up that acreage."

"We do have a competitive advantage through our capabilities that we need to drive home; [and] we are committed to the earliest commercialisation of our growth opportunities. This period of time in the market provides us the advantage to go and do that.

"We're in a strong financial position with the operating cash flow that we do have to be actually able to do the things that are on our plate."

He said Woodside's acquisition options were broad, but largely focused on liquids-supported conventional production where its marginal cost of supply is very low.

"We are achieving top quartile lifting costs, we're close to end markets, so transportation is low, and we deal with premium, credit worthy customers, so our business model is strong and robust," he said.

Value will be created in the decisive actions that Woodside needs to take over the next two years across its five main geographic areas across the globe, he said.

Coleman pointed out that four regions are new to the company.

Kitimat is making excellent progress in driving down its cost base and improving the "world-class" quality of the Liard resource; while he said in the North West Shelf the focus is on plateau extension and the opportunity to bring discovered undeveloped resources through the Karratha gas plant once ullage becomes available post-2020.

Then there is Greater Enfield, which should go to final investment decision later this year.

Value will be created out to 2020 and beyond through the diversity of the opportunities across the value chain - and some are "quite material" in their nature, he said.

"Our growth trajectory is an important one for us," was Coleman's appeal to analysts.

"We've talked a lot over the years about reserve replacement and ensuring we have growth. We are focused between now and 2020 on bringing forward our 2P reserves, both developed and undeveloped."

As far as capital allocation goes, he emphasised that Woodside would maintain a robust balance sheet and will service its debt, which has been reflected by ratings agencies over the past year.

New opportunities

While many in the commodities markets across both mining and oil and gas have fretted about China not growing as fast as some had hoped, Coleman said low prices ultimately meant new markets, with new players entering the LNG space "nearly weekly".

A number of new floating storage and regasification units are coming into the market as these new players start taking advantage of low oil prices.

"Industry has been closed shop for a long period of time, where traditional buyers and sellers have locked up supply on a point to point trade," he said.

"The market is now becoming more liquid, more supply is coming into the market which allows other entrants to come in.

"We think there is fundamental change in the buyer relationship and it's a positive change. It's broadening the base; it's bringing emerging markets into place and will displace other energy sources currently being supplied into those markets.

"[For] those who can take a longer view, longer than five years, now is the time to act decisively, and drive forward with competitive change.

"Our competitive position is that our low-cost position enables us to generate cash which means we have options in the market place. Those options are many."

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