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Big Oil adapts differently

EVEN as many American shale players feel the squeeze of lower oil prices, the impact of OPEC's production quota and pricing control on big oil has been divided with some faring better than the others.

Big Oil adapts differently

For its part, by maintaining its output quota in November and letting oil prices fall steeply, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has attempted to force shale producers to cut their output, as they struggle to reach breakeven costs.

This has resulted in reduced rig counts at key shale basins in the US with many companies facing balance sheet threats amid massive debt repayment obligations.

While the impact of OPEC policy is keenly felt by oil and gas supermajors too, analysts say they have taken differing paths to mitigating the pain of a low price environment. While the likes of ExxonMobil dipped into the bond market to capitalise on a low interest environment, Chevron accelerated its asset selling plan.

In an update last week, Chevron Corporation said it was planning to divest $US15 billion ($19.7 billion) worth of assets through 2017, which is 50% more than its initial target of $10 billion. The company will also trim capital expenditure by 13% to $35 billion this year from $40 billion in 2014.

With Chevron on schedule to complete its $54 billion Gorgon LNG project in Australia, its capital expenditure is likely to be further reduced.

While the strategy differs, Chevron's latest update is seen by industry observers as a way to boost liquidity and bolster the balance sheet.

Meanwhile, Exxon has tapped the debt capital markets through an $8 billion bond issuance that again will help its bottom line.

Even without the venture into the bond market, analysts say E&P majors ExxonMobil and Royal Dutch Shell have the ability to ride through the low oil price environment. With oil prices losing almost 50% of the value, most oilers - even major ones - have been generating negative cash flows.

But project completion timing seems to be the key, and the ability to adjust capex rests on where companies are on their spending cycles.

"Both had already entered a lower spending phase, with major projects reaching completion and coming on stream over the next two years," analysts at Moody's Investor Services said.

While ExxonMobil started eight major E&P projects, including in Papua New Guinea, the Gulf of Mexico and the Middle East, Shell began work on four big production start-ups including the Mars B and Cardamom oil fields in the Gulf of Mexico.

Its other projects include operations in Nigeria and closer to home in Malaysia.

As a result, ExxonMobil and Shell will be able to cut spending while maintaining their output levels for the next couple of years.

Compared with this, other majors including Chevron and Total (which are in the middle of large project spending) will have to dip into the debt market more, according to Moody's.

The impact of the low price environment has been particularly tough on BP, which is still reeling from the aftermath of its 2010 oil spill and its misadventure with Rosneft.

Many say this will see the likes of Exxon and Shell boosting their war chest for opportunistic buys and bargains as the market washes over.

However, in the meantime, the borrowing by big oil is likely to only increase as negative cash flow requires additional debt to cover costs.

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